Sabtu, 25 Juni 2022

COVID math

Last week I posted some "about" math on "Covid" and of course I was wrong. And it might be interesting to hear where I made that mistake, because it's usually appropriate.

Based on the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in any region of Germany, I have calculated a number that will protect you from infection. While I still believe that the vaccine provides some protection against infection on any given day, it may not be appropriate at all if you think about it for a long time. Think about it. In the long run, what is the probability that you will get the usual flu at least once in your life? Obviously, this number is very close to 100%, because as low as your risk of being infected one day is, there are many days in life. If the flu virus is everywhere, or if it is "endemic", sooner or later it will satisfy you, even if you live in a sparsely populated area, not much comes out.

It is now almost identical to the Covid and Delta versions. Covid has become endemic. No matter how much social distance you have, you can't be stuck in a bubble forever. So sooner or later *you get *covid*, whether you get vaccinated or not. Thus, the only vaccine protection statistic is a British study that found that unvaccinated people were 32 times more likely to die than vaccinated people .

According to The Economist, estimating the real number of deaths from Covid, the probability of death for an immunosuppressed person is approximately 1 in 300. Thus, the risk of death for a vaccinated person is approximately 1 in 10,000 . In the United States , an unvaccinated person is just as likely to die from a coronavirus as from a weapon, where they are less likely to die. A person who has been vaccinated before dying of sunburn. Of course, the lifetime probability of dying from COVID is not that precise, since we only have 2 years left. The virus may develop into more dangerous mutations, the chance of death may be as high as 1 in 100 deaths, or the new treatment may reduce the risk of death.

None of this changes my original message. Vaccination increases your chances of surviving COVID. The risk of receiving the vaccine is much less than the risk of not receiving it. Big Bird Okay, you have to get vaccinated.

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