Sabtu, 02 Juli 2022

Self-destructive?

In the last 250 years of US history, there has been 1 revolution, 1 civil war and 59 presidential elections. This would mean that it is easier to gain political power through voting than it is to gain political power through violence. Now different political parties tend to believe in different things. But it looks like a party that doesn't believe in elections will eventually be fruitful. Political activists around the world have a long history of organizing election boycotts , but in most cases the elections were still valid and non-participating parties lost by default.

Now a very useless person who lost an election can understandably claim that the vote against him was rigged. This is not a progressive strategy, it is simply a manifestation of personal weakness in the inability to accept defeat. It gets a little ridiculous when you say you blatantly cheated by losing the election . But the mentality of saving face by not accepting reality is perfectly clear.

As an active political strategy, claiming that the elections were largely rigged seems like political suicide for any party. How should a supporter of a political party react when he is told that his votes will not count? Basically, you have a choice between rebellion and indifference. As I mentioned at the beginning, the current upheaval took place in the United States in less than a century and has a historical success rate of 50%. Small scale violent protests are more common but have a 0% success rate. Given the low likelihood of violence and the normal human tendency to be indifferent, most people who think it's pointless to vote will simply stay at home.

Now it is clear that the party that wins any election is usually very confident that everything went well with the vote. The party that won the last election reinforces the belief that their votes differ, which motivates them to vote next time. Thus, the risk of electoral indifference of the party can turn into a death spiral: in close elections, the most motivated party wins, then the more motivated, when the indifferent party loses and becomes more and more convinced of the futility of the elections. And then it can fail if that makes it difficult to vote.

My prediction remains that this will not end well. Even as an outsider who sees only US news, politicians speak of the violence as a decision to "take our country back." If this trend does not change, they may return to their country in 1861.

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